New report on recent coal shortage in Poland – now available for our readers (so far onlyin Polish). Production problems underground, legal limitations, consumers review (energy sector, heat plants, retail customers) and our forecasts.
Thanks to Industrial Development Agency (ARP) we know now what were the prices of mid- and large sized coal (all peas, nuts and stoves and coal with grain larger than 31,5 mm) in first three quarters of 2016. Naturally, retail customers were the main purchase group of that commodity.
December update on Polish coal prices: PSCMI1 (coal sold to the energy sector) and PSCMI2 (heating sector and other major industrial consumers) and markers delivered by globalCOAL. PSCMI1 increased by 0,52% and PSCMI2 by 2,32% MOM.
Mainly because of increasing coal prices on international markets in second half of the year and fixed low prices of Polish coal, in 2016 Baltic ports in Gdansk, Gdynia, Szczecin and Swinoujscie recorded lower handling of this commodity.
In 2016 Polish coal mining industry produced 70.4m Mt of hard coal, which means the total production went down by 1.8m Mt YOY. Meanwhile sales went up by 2,7m Mt YOY and in total reached the level of 73.1m Mt.
Fresh update on Polish coal prices: PSCMI1 (coal sold to the energy sector) and PSCMI2 (heating sector and other major industrial consumers) and markers delivered by globalCOAL. Polish coal indices are following last month’s trend.
In first 3Q Poland imported 5.9m Mt of hard coal, which is 200k more YOY. Last year domestic import recorded 8.2m Mt, which was 2.1m less than in 2015. According to Industrial Development Agency (ARP), in current year that amount should be similar. So far, in after 9 months of 2016 Poland imported 4.3m Mt of steam coal (mainly from Russia) and 1.6m Mt of coking coal (Australia).
With price bellow 50 USD/Mt, we have even bigger spread between international coal indices and Polish PSCMI1 (coal sold to the energy sector). PSCMI2 (heating sector and other major industrial consumers) is trying to keep up with ARA, RB and NEWC and recorded small increase up to 52,03 USD/Mt.
In October, Polish coal mining sector produced in total 6.3m Mt of hard coal, which was 100k more MOM and 500k less YOY. In the same month, industry sold 6.5m Mt of commodity, which was almost 2m less MOM and 1.5m less YOY. Piles of unsold coal shrunk to only 3m Mt.
Still going their own ways, PSCMI1 marker decreased in October (-3.4% MOM), despite the fact that international coal prices were going up and recorded 189,71 PLN/Mt. Small increase in PSCMI2 by 1.71%, which gives 202,90 PLN/Mt.
After first 9 months of 2016 Polish coal mining sector had 1.3bn PLN loss on coal sales: each ton was sold with 10 PLN loss. Since January the whole industry produced 52m tons, with 42m Mt of steam coal and 9.7m Mt of coking coal and sold 54m Mt (3% more YOY).
Unsold coal stocked on piles shrunken in September to 3.4m Mt (from 5.7m Mt in August) and employment in the sector stabilized at a level of 86.8k miners. Meanwhile, both production and sales recorded in that month highest level in 2016.
September update on International weekly coal price indices: Atlantic/European DES ARA, South African FOB RB and Pacific/Australian FOB NEWC. No surprise here: further increase of all three markers week by week.
Breaking point on the Polish coal inner trade market? Finally, after 5 months of going their own ways, PSCMI markers started timidly increasing: PSCMI1 by 4.4% MOM (197.09 PLN/Mt) and PSCMI2 by 3.9% MOM (199,50 PLN/Mt).
After recent reconstruction of Beata Szydlo’s government in finance department, now the wind of change is coming to the Ministry of Energy, so far very unofficial. Rumors says, that around Saint Barbara’s Day we can have switch on the big chair and in the coal mining area.